Philip Nye

Philip Nye

Journalist and researcher

© 2024

The return of the deficit

For much of the period from 2008 to 2015 it was hard to escape the deficit. By turns gaping, yawning and huge, barely a day would pass without some mention of it.

And, while the deficit never really went away, by last year it was the lowest it had been since the financial crisis: £44bn for the full year. That was only around double the deficit1 in a single month in 2009: in December of that year there was a £21bn gap between spending and receipts.

And now. Deficit figures for April have been published this morning, showing a deficit of £62.1bn that month. Those figures are likely to be on the low side, too - while giving the impression of precesion, deficit figures incorporate estimates of tax receipts and spending, and these estimates are understandably shakier than normal at the moment. In its release, the Office for National Statistics has itself given greater attention to other measures that are less subject to estimation.

Borrowing of £62.1bn is the highest monthly total since records began in 1993. So, if this is something you’re allowed to write immediately following a chart, we’re in uncharted territory.

1: Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks